Why run your own WRF at all?
Global weather models stop being useful for soaring long before you reach the thermal layer. Here's why Convek runs WRF at 4 km instead of serving GFS like everyone else.
Deep-dives into tuning WRF and RASP for soaring - physics, resolution, and validation.
Global weather models stop being useful for soaring long before you reach the thermal layer. Here's why Convek runs WRF at 4 km instead of serving GFS like everyone else.
A forecast is not useful unless it is right. We verify Convek against radiosonde soundings and XContest flight activity. Here is the validation setup and what it says about where we are weak.
Getting WRF to run fast on a 12-vCPU box is a solved problem if you know the answer. We did not know the answer. Here is the week of wrong turns that eventually got UK 4 km to ~33 minutes per cycle.
The first few hours of any WRF run are contaminated by the model adjusting to its initial conditions. Here is how much we discard and why the four-daily cadence is designed around it.
Noah-MP is the right land surface scheme for soaring. But if you feed it stale soil moisture from GFS after a dry spell, it will quietly ruin your spring forecasts. Here is how we got caught and how we fixed it.
We tried four different ways of computing cloudbase from raw WRF output before settling on one that matched pilot reports. Here is what failed, and why.
The planetary boundary layer scheme is the single biggest lever on soaring forecast quality. We tested YSU against MYNN-2.5 across a UK convective season. Here is what won and why.
We spent October on the wrong microphysics scheme. WSM6 looked cheaper, and it was, but the cloudbase output was unusable. Here is what went wrong and how Thompson fixed it.
WRF gives you a vertical stack of eta levels to spend however you like. For soaring, almost all of them should live in the lowest few kilometres.
The first decision in any WRF setup is where the model sees air. Here is how the Convek UK domain is laid out and why the boundaries sit where they do.